MAIN SENSITIVITY
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Interactive demonstration · about 2 minutes
Choose a system, change five assumptions and compare three moves across 120 test worlds. You will see what appears to hold, what fails and which condition matters most.
Start with the defaultsA working illustrative simulation
This public model is deliberately simplified and rule-based. A commissioned study adds your evidence, stakeholder participation, alternative model structures and bounded LLM agents only when they improve the decision.
Illustrative result · business launch
Swipe or scroll to compare all five columns.
| Strategy | Held | Central 80% outcome band | Median downside | Median impact gap |
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“Held” means the move crossed this demo’s declared outcome, downside and impact-gap thresholds in that test world. The outcome band is P10–P90; outcome, downside and gap are comparative 0–100 demo indices, not observed units or probabilities of real-world success.
MAIN SENSITIVITY
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FAILURE HYPOTHESIS
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EARLY SIGNAL
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From public demo to client work
The simulation becomes useful evidence only after the assumptions, population, data and validation standard are specific to your decision.
Define constructs before collecting data. Use validated measures, observed behaviour, interviews and participation—with licensing, consent and cultural adaptation where needed.
Build group distributions, networks and constraints from evidence rather than treating synthetic personas as real people.
Compare simple rules with bounded LLM agents; test sensitivity, subgroup error, alternative structures and historical or held-out patterns.
Carry forward robust moves, named conditions, early signals and explicit points to scale, pause or change course.
Psychometric boundary: the demo models hypotheses about group behaviour. It does not assess, diagnose or infer the personality of any visitor or real person.
Read the measurement and validation method →Bring your own decision
Tell us what you must decide, when it matters and what failure would cost. We will assess fit and propose the smallest credible study. Scope and price are agreed later, in writing.
Discuss a decisionNo checkout, order or payment on this website.